Writing .

Fox Factory Sells Marucci: An Analysis

Fox Factory’s weird and wild foray into baseball, and what we can learn from the deal gone sideways.

Aug 2026

How Fox Factory Lost a Decade

The Q2 print, the thirteen-year story underneath it, and what this might tell us about the rest of the outdoor industry.

Jul 2026

Protect Our Winters: A Business Analysis of a Moral Brand

How a climate nonprofit turned outdoor guilt into brand halo, donor relief, and an accountability problem.

Jun 2026

Q2 Outdoor Industry Roundup

DJI eats the drivetrain, Trek talks about purpose, GoPro files going-concern, and Vail's mountains are suddenly in play. The Q2 2026 roundup.

Jun 2026

Your AI Just Built You a Financial Model. Would You Bet the Company on It?

Introducing OpenFPA, a new way to use coding agents to do FP&A work.

Jun 2026

You changed the AI. Did it actually get better?

Introducing a new way to evaluate your AI systems.

May 2026

GoPro: The Verb That Couldn't Defend Itself

GoPro invented a category, became the word people used for it, and is now worth less than the cash it's burning and has disclosed "substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going cocern..."

May 2026

Peptides and the Medicalization of Outdoor Performance

How recovery compounds, telehealth, and aging athletes could create the next high-LTV performance category.

May 2026

Fox Factory Reports Q1: The Boat Is Turning

What Fox's Q1 print tells us about the cost-out, the customer, and the bike industry's slow climb off the bottom

Apr 2026

The Moatless Industry: Why Outdoor Sports Can’t Protect Its Best Ideas

Analyzing cycling, skiing, and powersports through the lens of Michael Mauboussin’s competitive advantage framework

Apr 2026

Is DJI Reshaping the Bike Industry?

Avinox and Amflow may be disrupting the mountain bike industry with implications far beyond anything we've seen for decades (or ever)...

The Greedheads Work Eight Days a Week: Vail Resorts and the Financialization of Skiing

What happens when Wall Street and ski culture collides...

Q1 2026: The Outdoor Industry's Stress Test

With roughly one week left in Q1, it felt like a fitting time to recap what we've learned the last few months and shake the magic 8 ball.

The Data Behind a Bad Teton Winter

A side-quest analysis of snowfall, snowpack, and warmth in the Jackson Hole and Teton Valley

Fox Factory Q4: Jettison the Riff Raff

Fox beat low expectations, guided FY26 well below the Street, and quietly confirmed most of the thesis I laid out in December. Let's unpack what happened, what it means for bike, and the restructuring

Dec 2025

Data Science Meets Happy Hour: Building a "Sommelier" for Dive Bars

How I used NLP, Machine Learning, and a healthy disregard for Google ratings to find Denver’s hidden gems.

Dec 2025

The Great Reset: 2026 Predictions for the Outdoor & Powersports Industry

Inventories have normalized, but the consumer may be running off a cliff. Why 2026 will be a tale of two economies.

Dec 2025

Reflections After 12 Months of Vibe Coding

This month marks the one-year anniversary of my journey into "vibe coding." Looking back, 2025 will undoubtedly be remembered as the year the paradigm shifted with respect to software development, at least for me.

Nov 2025

Everything you need to build your own powder forecast — no subscription required.

A simple, reliable system for predicting snow using free tools and weather models.

Nov 2025

YT Industries is...back?

The German based bike company announced its return yesterday with Markus at the helm. What happened and do they have a path forward?

Nov 2025

Fox Factory Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations, SSG Drives Weakness

The suspension manufacturer missed results and guided lower, what went wrong?

Oct 2025

VideoDog - An AI Video Logging Tool That Runs Locally

This last weekend, I set out to build an AI-powered video logging tool that runs locally on my Mac Mini using lightweight open-source models. This post is about how I approached it, what worked, and what I learned.

Oct 2025

Is the Direct to Consumer Business Model Still Viable?

How the economics of selling direct create both leverage and risk — and why YT’s failure was about management, not model

Oct 2025

Podcast: Why Have So Many Bike Brands Closed in the Last Two Years?

I sat down with VitalMTB's Shawn Spomer and Charlie Sponsel to reflect on the last 2 years of turbulence in the bike industry.

Sep 2025

Authenticity on the Line: AI, Storytelling, and the Future of Outdoor Media

What happens when generative tools flood an industry built on being real?

Sep 2025

Is the Transition Spire still a formidable enduro bike?

Does the old dog still hunt? Check out my latest review of the big mountain brawler from Transition. It could actually *save* you money! ;)

Sep 2025

YT May Find Investors. Can It Find a Future?

Let’s take the chatter that YT has landed a new investor and run with it as a hypothetical to explore what the future might look like for the German mountain bike brand.

The Future of Bike Prices: What COVID, Inflation, Tariffs and Fx Mean for 2026

What is happening now and what should we expect into 2026 and beyond...

Why the Middle Fails: The Barbell Effect in Bikes

When baby bear porridge is not the right approach...

Product Review: Fox Podium, a $2,000 mistake?

The Fox Podium has not lived up to my expectations so far, but it also hasn't been a total dude. Turns out I've entered into a toxic relationship, not with a partner but with a suspension product. Stay tuned as I'll be u

State of the Industry: Giant Manufacturing's Q2 results

What can we infer from the largest manufacturer in the cycling space? What does it tell us about the future of the industry? A quick look at Giant's second quarter results...

State of the Industry: Fox Factory Reports Q2

Fox Factory reported their Q2 results after the market closed today. In this post we'll review the results, conference call comments and I'll give a brief analysis. For the uninitiated, the underlying goal of this analys

Jul 2025

KTM's Restructuring: What happened and where its going...

KTM has built a reputation that some might call "bulletproof" over the last few decades, at least as far as their bikes are concerned. The famed Austrian motorcycle manufacturer climbed back from the brink of extinction

Jul 2025

YT went bankrupt. Now what?

Last week well known mountain bike company YT Industries filed for the German equivalent of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protections. How did a brand that was perhaps the biggest growth story of the 2010s find themselves insolv

Jul 2025

My new Windows 95/98 Inspired Personal Website (and why I ditched wordpress*)

Thanks to a new wave of AI tooling in the programming space (replit + cursor), projects that would otherwise be far to daunting with respect to time and effort can suddenly come to fruition in extremely compressed time h

Bull and Bear Case for Replit

Will Replit become a foundational layer of the new AI-native software stack, or end up like AltaVista—an early leader with strong adoption and technical chops that still lost the war? In this piece, I break down both sid

The Future Is Personalized: Inside the AI Band I Built for a party in 90 Minutes

Tucker and the Robots has a hit new album, and I made it in under 2 hours with some help from my robot friends. Check this out to learn how I did it and what it means for the future.

Why Advertising (and clever marketing) Matters Now More Than Ever...

If building things is easier, what does that mean about getting people to actually use them? Well, it probably means advertising is going to get harder...

Beyond the Resume - 8 (robot) Questions to Show More of Who You Really Are

Outside medicine, the military and maybe law, resumes seem to be a relic of yesteryear when it comes to communicating who a person is. With that in mind, I will have a series of posts to shine a light on the lesser known

May 2025

I built a better AI gmail tool than Google*

One of my clients in the outdoor industry approached me with a simple request: "Hey Jeff, can you make the gmail AI draft writer work better for our business?"...so I went to work.

May 2025

Fox Factory Q1 2025 Earnings: Quick Take from a Former Analyst

Fox Factory just reported earnings. How are they faring through all the turbulence in the world these days? Check this to find out.

May 2025

In a music rut? Check out SonicAI...

If you are a Spotify user who is always looking for new music, checkout SonicAI, its a fun web app that uses gpt4o to find new music, just for you.

Why did Revel (maybe) go Bankrupt?

Hours ago it was announced Colorado based Revel Bikes had turned operations over to their senior creditors (they went bankrupt). I wrote this for a group of bike nerds I love but felt it fit the backdrop of my blog too w

Navigating the Financial Terrain of the Outdoor Industry with OtherHours

I built an interactive one-stop-shop for anyone tracking the business side of the outdoor industry. Check this post out to learn how I built it, why I built and the future of this fun little app...

Some quick tariff thoughts...

A bunch of folks have asked for my take on the new tariffs. Instead of texting, tweeting, or DM’ing half-baked thoughts, here’s a more complete (but still informal) brain dump of what I think, why I think it, and where t

Why I'm Shipping 12 (Mostly Silly) Web Apps in 2025

This year, I'm deliberately shipping what some people might call "toy apps", seemingly silly little web tools, experiments, and fun side projects that appear to be going nowhere. But there's a method to the madness.

Why I Built ColorBug in a Weekend

As an uncle, builder, and someone who thinks a lot about technology’s impact on our lives, I’ve been wrestling with a simple question: How do we give kids access to AI in ways that empower them—without letting it turn th

Mar 2025

My AI Tech Stack - March 2025

What I'm using, why I'm using it and how it might fit into your world. Yes, the list is long, but its the wild west out there in "AI" (starting to hate that phrase...)

Feb 2025

My Thoughts on Replit After Several Months of Use

Over the past few months, I’ve spent a significant amount of time using Replit, and after successfully shipping multiple apps with it, I’ve had quite a few people ask for my thoughts. So, here we are.

Feb 2025

Fear and Loathing at HYROX Las Vegas: A Savage Journey to the Heart of Endurance and Debauchery

What if Hunter S Thompson infiltrated my brain and wrote about Hyrox Vegas from my POV? Thanks to AI, we don't have to wonder...

Feb 2025

Is Fox Factory Okay?

Someone asked if I'd analyze the financial health of Fox Factory, so I did. If you are wondering how they are doing and if they'll be around in the future, this is for you.

Jan 2025

Introducing Hitch - A Better Way to Date*

Wait, now Jeff is making dating apps? Yes. I am. "But its not like other dating apps". Read on to find out more.

Nov 2024

Introducing Rali and the Chain Mag: Quiet Your Clapwagon

After a year of building, testing, iterating (and sometimes breaking things) I'm happy to launch our bike component company alongside David Camp.

Oct 2024

Bikes, Business and a Podcast with VitalMTB

Back in October of 2023 I caught wind of a lesser known bike company, Guerilla Gravity, going bankrupt. While this sort of thing isn't exactly rare in the specialty cycling space, what caught my attention were some of th

Oct 2024

CFO Asleep at the Wheel: The Failings of KTM's Parent Brand

Considering how much I love all things two wheels, it was a bit shocking to see a recent press release come across my newsfeed whereby Pierer Mobility (parent to KTM) announced they were pulling 2024 guidance. For those

Sep 2024

XC bikes gone wild - a review of the Specialized Epic 8 Evo

My thoughts after a season aboard the Epic 8 Evo

Aug 2024

The most popular mountain bike* in the world, reviewed.

The Specialized Stumpjumper is to mountain biking what the Model 3 is to EVs. In this piece, I review the Evo Alloy Elite model while leaving no stone unturned...

Aug 2024

Binary thinking in a non-binary world

Humans tend to simplify complex systems into binary choices, but life is often more nuanced. The controversy over a boxer with XY chromosomes competing in women's boxing highlights this complexity and maybe calls for a b

Jul 2024

Nerd Alert! The case for adjustable rear center lengths and a novel approach to mountain bike fit

Looking for some top tier bike nerdery? In this post I pose a novel way to approach mountain bike fitting, handling and weight distribution.

Apr 2024

Fidelity, bandwidth, resumes and dating profiles

Are we settling for less in hiring and dating because we're not using all the data available? I think so...

Mar 2024

Advice for those going to work for an early stage startup.

Considering going to work for a startup or quitting your day-job to build something? Check this before you do...

Mar 2024

The bull and bear case for a $2,600 mountain bike fork.

This week Colorado based Push Industries released the Nine.One, the company's first attempt at building a front suspension fork from the ground up. Among the staggering data points, the price might be the most eye catchi

Feb 2024

You are still a hypocrite...

Oh God. Jeff is writing about Protect Our Winters again...

Jan 2024

The bike "tune-up" is bullshit (and other relics of yesteryear...)

Maybe skip the annual "bike tune up" this year...

Jan 2024

Does it make any sense to field a world cup DH mountain bike team in 2024?

The economics seem to ignore the obvious...

Jan 2024

Net Present Value is Ruining Real Estate

What are we (really) optimizing for in real estate?

Dec 2023

Jeff's Predictions for 2024

What will 2024 bring? I weigh in... (and am mostly likely wrong)

Dec 2023

Why Every Product Manager Should Read "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell

I love GPT generated images. I am just finishing up Malcolm's Blink, a book about how we humans often "think without thinking". This is hardly surprising to me, being many of my hobbies require reaction on a millisecond

Dec 2023

Why the Cybertruck isn't a "truck for truck people"

Is the Cybertruck actually a threat to the American truck market?

Nov 2023

Electric powersports, how technology really progresses and the long tailed future of ICE

Are we overcommitting to the electrification of everything?

Nov 2023

My all time favorite piece of finance literature...

What is a moat and how important is it? Michael Mauboussin's masterpiece articulates this concept masterfully.

Oct 2023

One Lap Review: Specialized Stumpjumper Evo Elite Alloy

I'll do a full fledged review of this bike in due time. For now, I thought it'd be a worthwhile use of my time to do a one lap review where I attempt to ride and chat about my thoughts on what might be the most popular d

Jul 2023

Product Review: 2023 Husqvarna TX 300 TBI

Does an all new motor, chassis, transmission and kinematics make for a better on trail experience? Check the post to find out.

Jun 2023

Why Vanmoof Failed

When venture capital need not apply...

Apr 2023

Product Review: Polaris RMK Khaos Slash Boost 155

The best mountain sled on the market? Watch the damn video and decide for yourself.

Feb 2023

Product Review: 2023 Transition Smuggler

Transition released an all new Smuggler for 2023. Does the reintroduction of a cult classic still have a place in an ever crowded marketplace of hyper niche bikes? How does it stack up to th Smugger of old? Who is it for

Jan 2022

Product Review: GasGas EX 300 Long Term Test

After ~100 hours of use (plus 140 on a 2020 TX 300), here is my long term review of the 2021 GasGas EX 300 and the TPI motor package as a whole. Its been a hoot to ride this all over the Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Utah re

Apr 2021

E-Bikes: Stop Teasing Us

Two things compelled me to write this piece. First, I bought a SurRon (okay, my girlfriend did). Second, Specialized dropped a $13,000 (no I didn't misplace a 0) e-bike to much editorial applause. What does this all add

Mar 2021

How not to attempt to ski the Grand Teton

Sitting on a barstool is usually not the best place to be at 8:15 the night before you attempt to ski the Grand Teton. But that's exactly where I was, hanging out at the Knotty Pine thinking I'd have a relaxing evening a

Mar 2021

Ski Review: K2 Wayback 106 + Dynafit Superlight 150 Binding (and the 100K in a month challenge)

A one trick pony or a versatile touring weapon? My thoughts after a 100,000 feet of touring during the second snowiest February in the Tetons (ever). A long time ago I used to edit a little online ski magazine. It was st